So, what do we think of the possibility, or probability of the current human species being the launch pad for a concurrent race of genetically distinct sentients?
In an undisturbed natural state it takes isolation, time and differences in social behaviors for species to emerge. Theoretically, with the way humans are able to isolate themselves genetically through selective mating, and are thanks to mobility more able to find mates to their taste theres less inclination to settle for whats available and more drive to go for what is desirable. So if a particular group formal (like the Quakers), or informal like people who are left handed Zulu speaking people with bipolar disorder wanted to self select they in theory could.
So what do we think, can it happen? Will it happen? Will it be one split or several?
In an undisturbed natural state it takes isolation, time and differences in social behaviors for species to emerge. Theoretically, with the way humans are able to isolate themselves genetically through selective mating, and are thanks to mobility more able to find mates to their taste theres less inclination to settle for whats available and more drive to go for what is desirable. So if a particular group formal (like the Quakers), or informal like people who are left handed Zulu speaking people with bipolar disorder wanted to self select they in theory could.
So what do we think, can it happen? Will it happen? Will it be one split or several?
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Sometimes it isn't only about the philosophy behind the need to separate from conformity, it is a personality craving greatness and therefore creating a divergent philosophy. Of course, such a someone would have to either be in a very strong position to start with or they would have to have great powers of rhetoric.
Sometimes this behavior is visible in small clumps of people. The 'popular' person and his/her minions. The minions will go spread dissent by picking on the 'weakling/different person' mostly behind their back. It will result in the targeted person being outcast from the group. Such a person could have sympathisers and they would also depart.
How would this work out on a planet colony? I think it would be a much slower process because the lack of people would lead to a huge increase in their value. More allowances would be made up until the colony had a stable population. I therefore think it would be along the lines of bees or wasps swarming.
All of the above comments might be the result of extreme cynacism. I gave up coffee this morning. Berry zinger doesn't cut any ice.
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I think it would take a genetic barrier deliberately bio-engineered to speciate, otherwise. Humans just haven't been separated into any distinct varieties all that long.
I think humanity already runs in several mostly distinct sub-strains, but those sub-strains have enough inter-mixture that speciation is unlikely.
There's two ways in current theory to get speciation:
One is where a species--like a plant--is capable of reproducing itself with no partner. Get a polyploid offspring or something and it reproduces with itself, and the offspring can reproduce sexually with each other.
Two is the only possibility for humans without deliberate technological intervention. You have semi-speciation where variety A can breed with variety B, and variety C can breed with variety B, but A and C are infertile with each other. Then B goes extinct, or extinct in the range between them, and bam, A and C are now different species.
Depending on how you define species. Personally, I think the inability to breed and produce fertile offspring (in the vast majority of cases) is the defining line. A-B-C is a gray area.
I say "vast majority" because occasionally you get a mule that is fertile--I'm not sure of the statistics. Theoretically, if you bred that mule a lot, back to whatever species it's fertile with, and those offspring were fertile you could move horse genes into the donkey pool or donkey genes into the horse pool. More likely than not, you'd have to have a fertile mule stallion and breed him a hell of a lot to get a fertile cross animal, because iirc the offspring of a fertile mule tend to be infertile themselves. Or use surrogate mothers for breeding a fertile mule female a hell of a lot.
Anyway, speciation of humans on the same planet who have physical access to each other? Not gonna happen, primarily because enough men are slut puppies who are good at talking unattached females into sex without attaching to them, and who have no compunction about leaving a trail of babies behind them.
Taking an example, even though bipolars tend to marry into bipolar families, 40% of bipolars are hypersexual. You're always going to have a lot of out-crosses there.
Others may not be hypersexual, but strains of humanity that have strong taboos against out-crossing tend to get in wars with other strains of humanity. One way or another, those wars act in favor of more out-crosses.
Muslims and Jews have strong out-cross marriage taboos. Neither set of males has the slightest compunction about out-crossing without marriage. In the case of Muslims, there is no hard barrier to marriage with out-cross females. In the case of Judaism, there is no hard barrier about marriage to out-cross males. In fact, in the latter case, Tay-Sachs creates subtle incentive in the community, and out-cross marriage to shicksas so long as they convert. Even though many Jews consider out-cross kids less desirable as marriage partners, there are enough takers, and enough removal of social taint over generations, that new genes come in.
Human divergence beyond varieties and strains to species, on Earth? Unlikely.
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Bio engineering of specific features might become interesting. Especially if laws move towards favoring dna privacy. A group could do something like cause a fusing of the fight and sixth chromosomes, or create a new blood type that was impossible for anyone woman to carry to term if she didn't have it and then 'lock' it to two or three other genes.
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Species defined as reproductively compatible and recognising each other as potential mates? Not gonna happen unless the selection is rather down rabbit flea lines (rabbit fleas have a large number of distinct species, that are not reproductively compatible - Rabbit fleas genetalia have a lot in common with keys and locks. The wrong species doesn't 'fit'. The bizarre things you learn as a biologist) On the other hand 'species' is a pretty nebulous thing -even genetically. There is a delightful little fish _Pseudocrenilabrus philander_ (that proves the old adage - the smaller and less relevant you are, the bigger your name) - which occurs in isolated waterbodies across southern africa. Mate recognition is behavioural and involves display of colors. It occurs in an almost closed semi-circular distribution, and there is a great deal of variation beween the ends of the spectrum. The ends of the spectrum will not choose to mate with each other... but their neighbor-ppulations - from the nearest discrete waterbody... eagerly. At this stage we can still see that they are one species. But you can see how splitting would occur. Yet genetically they are compatiple and interfertile.
Contrary to popular perception both males and females have certian advantages to unfaithfulness in any species - like ours - that exibits a high level of both male and female investment in childcare. The ideal for a male is sowing some wild oats, because his energy expenditure in this is low. In good times them female may even manage to rear a few offspring without him, and he can spread himself around. Of course in tough times mummy and fatherless child are toast. Only a high level of parental investment by both parents will keep little 'un alive to breed. And daddy has the problem that if he wasn't actually the father, he's spending a lot of energy not keeping his own genes alive. So hence it is a lot more important to males to try to assure that they're not raising a cuckoo. On the other hand, no matter if she's got faithful Freddy and five other boyfriends on the side, mother has NO doubt that the kid is 50% her genes. And so long as faithful freddy never finds out, genetic variability means her kids are more likely to survive. So: males are favored to stray when times are good, or if they can get some other poor male bastard to do the child rearing of their kid. Females have a benefit at any stage, but have to be pretty secretive about it;-). Let no one kid you that it a purely male trait.
So let's assume that this society of which you speak is not frozen sperm by post... people will cheat. And if it is frozen sperm by post... then the species created will - unless they go in for some interesting modification, be interfertile and may breed together later. If a sausage dog and a great dane can still get it together, anthing can.
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I figured I shouldn't keep chatting with you on someone else's blog, but it was great fun to come upon you! (Frankly, I have no idea why agents would not visit writers blogs, but you sounded so cool, I figured I should say something. ;-)
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Of course, now the question isn't who will marry or have sex with whom. It's who is actually reproducing, and who are they doing it with?
Right now I think we're just at the start of a major intermixing era. Lots of migrations. And thanks to TV there just aren't that many people out there at are really strange, any more.
We all know people in mixed marriages, will they continue to be the exception, or become the rule?
If something causes a retreat into isolated breeding groups, the starting point is going to be amazingly homogenous, compared to historic population groupings.
Right now I could conceive of racially segregated stellar colonies. By the time we get around to inventing the means to create those colonies, all the populations clusters will have so many kids and grand kids of mixed heritages that the colonies will start out with excellent genetic diversity. Then natural selection can go to town.